Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1161
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 1161 · BNA → GSP
departs 6:00 PM CT · arrives 8:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 60%
Sat 11/7 30%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 29%
Tue 11/10 30%
Wed 11/11 31%
Thu 11/12 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.