Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1197
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 1197 · SEA → SAN
departs 6:29 PM PT · arrives 9:18 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 41%
Tue 11/10 34%
Wed 11/11 41%
Thu 11/12 47%
Fri 11/13 51%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 27 kt
Ceiling 3,500 ft
Visibility 8.33333 mi
Precip 0.24 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.