Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 1291 · COS → DEN
departs 5:04 PM MT · arrives 6:08 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 45%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
COS (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.