Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1459
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 1459 · RDU → STL
departs 7:46 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 32%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.