Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1740
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 1740 · PHX → SAN
departs 7:34 PM MT · arrives 7:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 37%
Thu 11/12 42%
Fri 11/13 45%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±9 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.