Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 1780 · DEN → SAN
departs 5:27 PM MT · arrives 6:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 45%
Tue 11/10 29%
Wed 11/11 24%
Thu 11/12 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.