Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2181 · TUL → DEN
departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 7:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 37%
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.