WN 2258 · LAS → SFO

departs 10:26 PM PT · arrives 12:06 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 7h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2258 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?