Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2286 · LAS → AUS
departs 4:41 PM PT · arrives 9:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 34%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 27%
Thu 11/12 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
54%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.