WN 2450 · LAS → OAK

departs 7:28 PM PT · arrives 9:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±7 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 7pm departures from LAS are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at OAK that day

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

OAK (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2450 · LAS → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?