Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2471 · LAS → TPA
departs 4:21 PM PT · arrives 11:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 39%
Thu 11/12 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.