Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2818 · MCO → MSY
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 43%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 32%
Thu 11/12 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.