Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2872
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 2872 · PHX → OAK
departs 6:39 PM MT · arrives 7:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 30%
Tue 11/10 23%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 43%
Fri 11/13 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±7 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
59%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
59%
Yes 59%
No 41%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.