Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2874
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 2874 · MCO → STL
departs 6:55 PM ET · arrives 8:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 95%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 40%
Tue 11/10 28%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.