Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 296
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 296 · OAK → SNA
departs 4:26 PM PT · arrives 6:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 23%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.