WN 3024 · MDW → SAT

departs 9:26 PM CT · arrives 12:17 AM CT

Forecast issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 15h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from MDW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.95 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3024 · MDW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?