Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3028
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 3028 · MDW → SDF
departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 30%
Tue 11/10 33%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 38%
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.