Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 309 · BWI → MCO
departs 6:51 PM ET · arrives 9:27 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Sat 11/7 41%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 35%
Tue 11/10 34%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.