Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 3206 · OAK → ONT
departs 4:23 PM PT · arrives 5:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 27%
Thu 11/12 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.