Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 3226 · SFO → SAN
departs 4:17 PM PT · arrives 6:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 54%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 45%
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 30%
Thu 11/12 43%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 49% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.