Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 3451 · OAK → BUR
departs 4:57 PM PT · arrives 6:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 40%
Sat 11/7 35%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 27%
Tue 11/10 15%
Wed 11/11 17%
Thu 11/12 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.