Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 3474 · SJC → LGB
departs 4:23 PM PT · arrives 5:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 19%
Thu 11/12 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.