Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3840
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 3840 · SFO → BUR
departs 7:07 PM PT · arrives 8:41 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 28%
Thu 11/12 51%
Fri 11/13 61%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±9 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.