WN 3969 · LAS → SMF

departs 10:33 PM PT · arrives 12:11 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts2 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3969 · LAS → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?