Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4034
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4034 · SMF → ONT
departs 6:24 PM PT · arrives 7:57 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 20%
Tue 11/10 19%
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 31%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SMF are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.2 mi forecast at SMF that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ONT
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.