Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4057
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4057 · PDX → PHX
departs 7:01 PM PT · arrives 10:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 35%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.08 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.