Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 407
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 407 · MDW → BWI
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 11:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 20%
Thu 11/12 30%
Fri 11/13 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.