Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4152
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Today
WN 4152 · LAS → MDW
departs 8:29 PM PT · arrives 1:51 AM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.