Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4193
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4193 · DAL → BWI
departs 5:38 PM CT · arrives 9:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.