Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4229
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4229 · TPA → BUF
departs 10:09 PM ET · arrives 12:52 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 7:00 PM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 26%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 30%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BUF that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.