Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4246
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4246 · MDW → BHM
departs 6:39 PM CT · arrives 8:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 5:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 32%
Tue 11/10 32%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BHM (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.