Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4286
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4286 · TPA → STL
departs 9:39 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 22%
Thu 11/12 37%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.