Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4301
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4301 · TUS → SAN
departs 7:27 PM MT · arrives 7:58 PM PT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 37%
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13 47%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 51% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
TUS (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.