Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4333
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4333 · SAT → SAN
departs 6:56 PM CT · arrives 8:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 40%
Tue 11/10 26%
Wed 11/11 25%
Thu 11/12 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at SAT that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.86 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.