Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 441
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 441 · LGB → SMF
departs 3:58 PM PT · arrives 5:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 25%
Thu 11/12 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
3pm departures from LGB are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.