Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4421
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4421 · MDW → ROC
departs 6:44 PM CT · arrives 9:34 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 41%
Tue 11/10 43%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 6.66667 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.