Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4431
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4431 · STL → BOS
departs 7:49 PM CT · arrives 11:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 22%
Tue 11/10 38%
Wed 11/11 45%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 44%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BOS (destination)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.10 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.