Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 443
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 443 · AUS → TUL
departs 6:33 PM CT · arrives 8:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Fri 11/6 35%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
34%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
34%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at TUL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUL?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.13 in
TUL (destination)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.