Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4464 · BWI → RIC
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:04 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 63%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 44%
Tue 11/10 36%
Wed 11/11 44%
Thu 11/12 50%
Odds over time
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at RIC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RIC?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RIC (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.