Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4504
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4504 · HOU → BWI
departs 8:40 PM CT · arrives 12:46 AM ET
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 27%
Tue 11/10 27%
Wed 11/11 37%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 49% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
BWI (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.