Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4611
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4611 · MCO → BUF
departs 8:37 PM ET · arrives 11:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 39%
Tue 11/10 42%
Wed 11/11 42%
Thu 11/12 46%
Fri 11/13 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUF (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 9.66667 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.