Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4630
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4630 · MCO → SRQ
departs 8:49 PM ET · arrives 9:43 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 39h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 28%
Tue 11/10 32%
Wed 11/11 35%
Thu 11/12 34%
Fri 11/13 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SRQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SRQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SRQ?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SRQ (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.