Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4638 · LAS → BUR
departs 4:19 PM PT · arrives 5:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 32%
Tue 11/10 14%
Wed 11/11 14%
Thu 11/12 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 54% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.