Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4685
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4685 · HOU → MEM
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 10:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 33%
Tue 11/10 25%
Wed 11/11 33%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
MEM (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.