Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4782 · HOU → STL
departs 8:29 PM CT · arrives 10:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Sat 11:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 23%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±5 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 44% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.