Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4807
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4807 · STL → JAX
departs 7:49 PM CT · arrives 10:58 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 AM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 28%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from STL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at STL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.