Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8 Tomorrow
WN 4851 · AUS → FLL
departs 7:44 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 40h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 39%
Thu 11/12 44%
Fri 11/13 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
61%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
61%
Yes 61%
No 39%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.68 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.