Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4875
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 4875 · SFO → PHX
departs 4:22 PM PT · arrives 7:28 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 48% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.