Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 506
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 506 · ELP → DEN
departs 4:43 PM MT · arrives 6:43 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 54%
Thu 11/12 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ELP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.06 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.