Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Nov 1, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 528
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 8
WN 528 · AUS → DAL
departs 6:28 PM CT · arrives 7:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 51%
Sun 11/8
Mon 11/9 37%
Tue 11/10 24%
Wed 11/11 27%
Thu 11/12 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.13 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.